Political Ad Surge Crowds Out Local CTV Slots This Holiday Season

Connected TV (CTV) has become a go‑to channel for local businesses that want to reach households while they stream shows on platforms like Roku, Hulu and Amazon Fire TV. Unlike traditional TV, CTV offers precise geo‑targeting, dayparting and performance metrics, making it attractive for coffee shops promoting a morning brew, salons advertising holiday makeovers, pet groomers selling seasonal packages, and fitness studios filling class rosters.

The latest midterm election cycle has triggered an unprecedented surge in political ad spend, with advertisers pouring an estimated $1.2 billion into CTV slots over the next 12 weeks. The spend spike began in early September and is expected to peak during the October‑November voting window, effectively crowding out commercial inventory that local brands normally purchase.

Because CTV inventory is finite, the influx of political ads drives CPMs up by 25‑40% and reduces the number of available impressions for non‑political advertisers. For a local coffee shop that typically buys 500,000 impressions at $12 CPM, the cost could jump to $16‑$17 CPM, eroding ROI and limiting the ability to reach nearby commuters during peak morning hours.

A coffee shop that runs a "Morning Boost" CTV campaign may see its reach drop from 200,000 to 140,000 households, forcing a cut in foot‑traffic projections. A hair salon promoting a "Holiday Glam" package could face a 30% increase in ad spend to maintain the same booking lift. A pet groomer’s seasonal grooming bundle might lose the prime‑time slots that drive the most bookings, while a fitness studio’s New Year membership drive could see a dip in sign‑ups if the ad frequency falls below the optimal threshold.

Marketers should monitor the political ad calendar, watch CPM trends in real time, and be ready to pivot. If the political surge is a test run, inventory may normalize after the election; if it’s a full‑scale rollout, local brands may need to secure inventory now or shift to alternative channels such as programmatic audio, local OTT platforms, or social video ads.