Programmatic Advertising
Local Ad Spend 2026: What the Forecasts Mean for You
How much will local advertisers spend in 2026?
BIA Advisory Services forecasts US local ad revenue at $186.1 billion for 2026, roughly 9% above 2025, according to Webtonic's roundup of BIA data (secondary). That figure includes political spending tied to the election cycle. Without political money, the same roundup reports local ad revenue growing only 3.4%, with 54.7% of non-political spend going to digital channels.
For a coffee shop, salon, groomer or studio that does not buy political inventory, the 3.4% is the more useful number.
$186.1B→
Local ad revenue forecast, 2026
BIA via Webtonic, includes political (secondary)
3.4%↓
Local ad growth without political
BIA via Webtonic, excludes political (secondary)
18.8%↑
CTV/OTT share of local TV wallet
BIA via Webtonic, up from 13.9% in 2024 (secondary)
17%↑
Average planned CTV spend increase
Advertiser Perceptions and Premion survey via Advanced Television (secondary)
See Sources at the end of the article. Cards marked Assumption are examples, not results.
Why does political spend change the headline numbers?
Election-year money flows into local television and related channels in large amounts, and it lifts totals without telling a plumber or a pet groomer anything about normal demand. BIA's September update raised the total by $1.6 billion, from $184.5 billion in April to $186.1 billion, and the roundup attributes most of the lift to political spending.
Other headlines are larger. MediaPost's article is titled "Local 2026 Advertising: +24% On Big Political Gains" (secondary). The headline itself does not give a base year or scope, and the article's web address refers to local TV. A 24% figure and a roughly 9% figure come from different publications and are not directly comparable.
Averaging them would produce a number that no forecaster published. Each should be quoted with its own label.
Whether rates in political-heavy windows rise for small advertisers is not documented in these sources. Ask any TV or streaming seller for current rates and the dates those rates apply to, instead of assuming a pattern.
Where is local ad money moving: TV, CTV, search, social or direct mail?
The sources differ in how much they say about each channel, and some say nothing. The table keeps each claim next to its source and its scope.
| Channel | What the sources say | Political spend note | Local takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Local TV (linear) | Headline growth is lifted by political money. Among CTV advertisers who plan to raise CTV spend, the funding not coming from budget growth is reallocated from linear TV, display, search and social (Advanced Television, secondary). | Headline totals include political; the 3.4% does not | Do not read election-year totals as a signal that broadcast works better for a small advertiser |
| Local CTV/OTT | Share of the local TV wallet rises from 13.9% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2026, spend reaches $3.6B, growth is 9.7% (BIA via Webtonic, secondary) | Stated as excluding political | The fastest-growing line inside local TV, from a small base |
| Search | Google's methodology claims an average return of $8 in profit per $1 spent on Google Ads (Google Economic Impact, via Webtonic, secondary) | Not applicable | A vendor's own average, not a promise for any one account |
| Social | National social video is forecast at $31.9B, up 13%, and passed CTV in spend in 2025 (IAB and Guideline, via Adwave, secondary) | Not applicable | National figure; no local-only forecast appears in these sources |
| Direct mail | No forecast or figure appears in the sources used here | Not applicable | Treat as a test with a tracked offer code, not a benchmark-led choice |
The digital share of 54.7% is a market-wide average. It does not mean a given business should put 54.7% into digital.
Why are CTV forecasts so far apart?
National CTV forecasts differ because they count different things. Adwave's market-size page (secondary) lists the IAB and Guideline forecast of $29.3 billion for 2026, up 11%. It lists an eMarketer forecast of $36.95 billion from August 21, 2026. Both are forecasts, and neither is an observed full-year total.
The same page states that the gap reflects definitions and models. It warns against averaging the two into a third number. The $36.95 billion figure is described as wider than the IAB line.
Local numbers sit on a different scale again. BIA's $3.6 billion is local CTV/OTT spend, a subset of what national forecasts describe.
A small business does not need to settle which total is right. The useful question is whether streaming inventory can be bought in amounts a local budget can afford. The same page says one vendor's channel ladder opens TV, YouTube, Google Search and Meta placements from $30 a day, and Reddit from $35 a day. Those are product minimums, not predictions of calls or jobs.
For unit pricing, see the CTV cost and CPM breakdown. For the difference between the terms, see CTV vs OTT explained.
What are other small businesses doing with their budgets?
The survey signals point in different directions, and the percentages come from different questions.
According to the Webtonic roundup (secondary), Constant Contact's Q1 2026 survey of more than 1,500 small business owners found 68% plan to increase marketing budgets. Inflation was the top concern at 41%, and only 14% expect budgets to fall. LocaliQ's figures in the same roundup are lower: nearly 40% plan to raise budgets and 54% plan to hold them flat.
The two surveys do not reconcile, and one should not be treated as a correction of the other. The safest reading is that most owners are not cutting, and that the share planning increases varies by survey.
Among advertisers already buying CTV, the Advertiser Perceptions and Premion survey (secondary) found 70% expect to raise CTV spend, by 17% on average. For those increasing, 25% of the funding comes from overall budget growth. The remainder is reallocated from linear TV, display, paid search and social.
That sample is CTV advertisers only, so it will lean positive about CTV.
What should a small business copy, and what should it avoid?
Several moves in the sources are worth copying at small scale.
- Efficiency over volume. In the Constant Contact figures, 50% of owners are pursuing efficiency strategies and 33% are testing new tools.
- Streaming as a complement to other channels. Four in five surveyed advertisers say linear plus CTV works better than either alone. Nearly nine in ten say CTV in an omnichannel plan improves performance. Both come from CTV advertisers, so the claim is self-reported. It still suggests streaming as one layer, not a replacement for search.
- Review work before spend. BrightLocal's 2026 survey, quoted in the roundup, finds 97% of consumers read local reviews. It also finds 31% will only use a business rated 4.5 stars or higher, up from 17% the year before.
Other moves are worth avoiding.
- Reading the $186.1 billion total as proof that local media has become more effective.
- Copying a national CTV advertiser's plan. Local reach, creative and frequency needs differ, and the small-budget CTV worth-it guide covers where the break points are.
- Skipping measurement. Without analytics set up first, a paid test cannot be judged. The Google Analytics 4 setup guide covers the basics.
Fitness studios can look at CTV ads for fitness studios for category-specific ideas.
What does a 90-day budget split look like for a local service business?
The example below is built for a boutique fitness studio. Every input is an assumption chosen to show the arithmetic, not a benchmark.
Assumptions: total budget of $6,000 over 90 days; CTV run at $30 a day, matching the published vendor minimum noted above; a new member worth $600 in first-year revenue.
| Line | Share (assumption) | Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Google Search | 35% | $2,100 | About $23 a day, running all 13 weeks |
| Social ads | 20% | $1,200 | About $13 a day, running weeks 4 to 13 |
| CTV flight | 25% | $1,500 | About 50 days at $30 a day, weeks 5 to 11 |
| Direct mail test | 10% | $600 | One tracked drop with an offer code |
| Reviews, creative, tracking | 10% | $600 | Set up in weeks 1 to 2, maintained after |
Shares total 100% and amounts total $6,000.
Break-even under these assumptions: $6,000 divided by $600 per new member is 10 new members across 90 days, before any other costs. If the studio cannot name where 10 members would come from, the budget or the offer needs work first.
The schedule below shows how the weeks could run.
| Week | Action | Check |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Install analytics, set conversion events for trial bookings and calls | Test a booking and confirm it records |
| 2 | Audit reviews on Google and other listings; reply to open ones; request new reviews | Rating and review count noted as a baseline |
| 3 | Launch search with a daily cap | Search terms reviewed for waste |
| 4 | Add social ads with one offer and two creatives | Cost per trial booking noted |
| 5 | Start CTV flight; ask the seller for current rates and dates | Confirm creative meets ad specs |
| 6 | Send the direct mail drop with a unique code or QR link | Count code uses weekly |
| 7 to 8 | Midpoint review across all channels | Pause the weakest line, keep the data |
| 9 to 11 | Run the CTV flight to its end; keep search and social steady | Compare trial bookings in flight weeks to non-flight weeks |
| 12 | Decide what repeats; move budget from the weakest channel | Written note on what changed and why |
| 13 | Final report: cost per trial, per new member, per channel | Plan the next 90 days |
CTV results are hard to read from last-click reports, so the comparison of flight weeks against non-flight weeks in weeks 9 to 11 is a rough check, not proof. For how CTV compares with broadcast for local buyers, see CTV vs traditional TV for local business.
FAQ
Is the $186.1 billion local ad forecast good news for small businesses?
Not directly. BIA's total includes political spend, and the roundup attributes most of the lift to the election cycle. The ex-political growth figure of 3.4% is the closer read of normal local advertising demand.
Should the 9% and 24% figures be averaged?
No. They come from different publications, and the 24% headline does not state a base year or scope. Quote each one with its source and its political-spend status.
Will local ad prices fall after the election cycle?
That is not documented in the sources used here. Ask each seller for current rates and the dates they apply to, and compare quotes in writing before committing.
Is $30 a day enough to start on CTV?
One vendor's published ladder opens TV and Google Search from $30 a day. That is a product minimum, not a forecast of results. The practical test is whether the creative, offer and tracking are ready.
Sources
- MediaPost: Local 2026 Advertising: +24% On Big Political Gains (secondary)
- Webtonic: Where Local Advertising Budgets Are Going This Year (secondary; reports BIA, Constant Contact, LocaliQ, Premion, BrightLocal and Google figures)
- Advanced Television: Survey: 70% CTV advertisers to increase spending by 17% in 2026 (secondary)
- Adwave: How big is the connected TV advertising market? (secondary; reports IAB, Guideline and eMarketer forecasts)
A forecast is not a plan. For a review of where a local budget could go next quarter, request a free audit.
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Nataliia Rumiantsewa
Local marketing strategist with 10+ years at global agencies — OMD, Dentsu, GroupM, and BBDO. Now helping small businesses get the same data-driven edge. Based in Europe, working with clients in the US, UK, Australia, and beyond.
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